Monday, June 02, 2008
Obama, the Dukakis Trap, and Meeting Sistani
Barack Obama is considering a trip to Iraq this summer.
I fear he has been forced into this visit by John McCain, who keeps
taunting him on his limited foreign policy experience, saying he has
not been to Iraq since 2006 and so does not understand how the "surge"
was "victorious."
McCain's
taunts are ridiculous. His foreign policy-making experience is also
limited, since he was not in the executive. To the extent he has been
involved in others' foreign policy initiatives, he
has been wrong most of the time. He demanded more money in the 1980s
for the mujahideen in Afghanistan, some of whom later morphed into
al-Qaeda and the Taliban. He coddled Pakistani military dictators
such as Gen. Zia ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf. Gen. Zia promoted the
fundamentalist Jama'at-i Islami and the 'Islamization' of Pakistani
law. Musharraf declined to follow through on former PM Nawaz Sharif's
pledge to send in a SWAT team to get Usama Bin Laden, in fall of 1999.
McCain also was tight with Ahmad Chalabi and helped get up the Iraq War
in the first place.
So much for the Arizona Senator's 'experience' and good foreign policy sense.
Moreover, as CNN war correspondent Michael Ware observed from Baghdad recently, any VIP visit to Iraq,
cocooned inside the US military and the Green Zone, would be more
dog-and-pony show than fact-finding mission. Guerrilla wars are not
apparent on the surface. People shop, cars circulate, things look all
right. But then in this neighborhood or that there is a bomb, there are
killings. Neighborhoods slowly change their ethnic complexion.
Outsiders wouldn't even notice it. Over time, the horror of guerrilla
war, like a determined serial killer, imprints itself on the society.
The fear stays in the back of peoples' minds. But you couldn't see it
on a VIP visit.
Moreover, the McCain camp is hoping for a
'Dukakis moment.' They hope they can get Obama looking awkward or
nerdy, trying to play soldier in Iraq. Then they can do a remake of
Bush Sr.'s notorious hit job on then presidential candidate Michael
Dukakis of Massachusetts.
So here is some advice for Senator Obama if he goes to Iraq.
See if a meeting can be set up with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.
Sistani has enormous moral authority in Iraq and is known for his
support for national unity. No one could slam Obama for meeting with
the Grand Ayatollah. Paul Bremer corresponded with him. He is not a
radical and is well respected by the US military. And, when Obama comes
to debate McCain, the Grand Ayatollah would give him a trump card.
"Senator McCain speaks of having US bases in Iraq for a hundred years.
Grand Ayatollah Sistani and other key Iraqi leaders told me to my face
that any such plans are completely unacceptable to them. How likely is
it that the McCain fatwa can be more popular or legitimate in Iraq than
the Sistani fatwa?"
Sistani doesn't meet many foreigners. But he
has met UN special envoys and a wide range of politicians. It isn't
beyond the realm of possibility that he would meet Obama. Providing
security in Najaf could be done. US Ambassador Ryan Crocker was in
Najaf recently. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim could set it up and help guarantee
it.
He should meet with the Iraqi government leaders, but should also seek
meetings beyond that circle. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, as well as
the leaders of the major parties--Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Jalal Talabani,
Massoud Barzani and even Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi (Iraqi Islamic
Party which is Sunni fundamentalist), will tend to feed him the Green
Zone party line. He should also meet with the leaders of the Fadhila
Party (powerful in the key port of Basra) and with secular
nationalists. If an unobjectionable Sadrist MP could be found, and no
photographs were allowed, that would be a good meeting.
McCain will try to focus on the US military in Iraq, which is a diversion. The question is Iraq and Iraqis. What do they want? Where are their politics going? What relationship do they want with the US.
By going to Iraqi political and civil society, Obama can elude the Dukakis trap that McCain is trying to set for him.
He can moreover shift the discourse from whether the US military can be "victorious" in Iraq to what Iraqis want.
Since the Republican talking points have for so long focused on
bestowing democracy on Iraq, that would be an effective counter to
McCain's 'victory' narrative.
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